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经济学人:日不落帝国的崛起蓄势待发(1)

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Oversold over here

这里超卖了

The bull case for beaten-up Britain

对饱受打击的英国来说是牛市

One of the vices of Britons is a penchant for mourning the country's decline. To be cured of this, Britain would probably need a different history. It was the first industrial nation. From that starting-point, its influence could only ever go in one direction: downwards. There is a large literature blaming long-term decline on sloth, complacency and amateurism. Brexit is just another opportunity to lament lost relevance.

英国人的恶习之一就是喜欢为国家的衰落哀悼。要想解决这个问题,英国可能需要一段不同的历史。英国是第一个工业化国家,从这个起点开始,它的影响只能朝着一个方向:向下。大量文献将长期的衰落归咎于懒惰、自满和业余,而英国脱欧只是另一个哀叹失去相关性的机会。

This sense of decline is felt keenly in capital markets. Sterling was once the global currency but it now accounts for less than 5% of foreign-exchange reserves. Britain's money markets used to stand out in Europe for their high interest rates; but no longer. And Britain's stockmarket is a shadow of its former self. Big IPOS are as rare as rocking-horse dung. This scarcity along with years of share underperformance has seen Britain's share of global market capitalisation shrink markedly.

这种衰落感在资本市场尤为明显。英镑曾经是全球货币,但现在它只占外汇储备的不到5%。英国的货币市场曾因其高利率而在欧洲脱颖而出,如今光环已不再,英国的股票市场已成昔日的影子。大型IPOS(首次公开募股)就像摇摆木马的马粪一样罕见。这种稀缺性,加上多年来的股票表现不佳,使得英国在全球市场资本中所占的份额大大缩水。

So accepted has the narrative of decline become, that it is probably time to bet the other way. The economy is poised for a sharp recovery. London's bourse is stuffed with the shares of companies—miners, banks and energy firms—that ought to do well in an environment of rising inflation. And though fixing the structural deficiencies of Britain's capital markets is a big task, it is not impossible.

衰落已是事实,或许是时候赌一把了。经济的迅速复苏已经蓄势待发。伦敦证券交易所充斥着矿业公司、银行和能源公司的股票,这些公司在通胀上升的环境下应该会表现良好。尽管修复英国资本市场的结构性缺陷是一项艰巨的任务,但也不是不可能。

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On cyclical grounds, there is a strong case for Britain. The immediate outlook for the economy is rosier than almost anywhere. That in part reflects the ground lost to covid-19. The Bank of England reckons that, even after a surge in activity this quarter, GDP will still be around 5% below its pre-pandemic level. But it is also because the vaccine roll-out has been impressively quick. There is a sense, too, that uncertainty is diminishing. Brexit is done. The world has kept turning. And politics is more stable. Even if a fight over Scottish, and possibly Northern Irish, independence still looms, the ruling Conservatives enjoy a handsome majority in parliament.

从经济周期的角度来看,英国的复苏有一个强有力的理由。经济的近期前景比几乎任何地方都要乐观,这在一定程度上反映了新冠夺走的阵地。英格兰银行估计,即便本季度经济活动激增,但GDP仍将比新冠前的水平低约5%。但这也是因为疫苗极快的推广速度。还有一种感觉是,不确定性正在减少。脱欧完成了,但世界还在运转,政治也更加稳定。即使围绕苏格兰(可能还有北爱尔兰)的独立之争仍隐约可见,但执政的保守党在议会中仍享有可观的多数席位。

The FTSE All-Share index is heavy with the kind of cyclical stocks that have been in favour recently. But, lamentably, it is light on the digital champions of tomorrow. This is not for lack of innovation. Britain is rather good at fostering startups. There are various tax breaks to help fledgling companies raise seed capital. Universities have grasped that business spin-offs are to be encouraged, says Anne Glover of Amadeus Capital Partners, a venture-capital firm. Britain has four in the top ranks: Oxford, Cambridge, Imperial College and University College, London.

富时全股指数中充斥着最近备受青睐的周期性股票。但令人遗憾的是,未来的数字领军企业还没有出现。并不是因为缺乏创新,英国非常擅长培育创业公司,有各种各样的税收减免来帮助羽翼未丰的公司筹集种子资本。风险投资公司Amadeus Capital Partners的安妮·格洛弗表示,大学已经意识到,商业剥离将受到鼓励。英国有4所顶尖大学:牛津大学、剑桥大学、帝国理工学院和伦敦大学学院。

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重点单词   查看全部解释    
lament [lə'ment]

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n. 悲叹,悔恨,恸哭
v. 哀悼,悔恨,悲叹

联想记忆
environment [in'vaiərənmənt]

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n. 环境,外界

 
innovation [.inəu'veiʃən]

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n. 创新,革新

联想记忆
global ['gləubəl]

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adj. 全球性的,全世界的,球状的,全局的

联想记忆
poised [pɔizd]

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adj. 泰然自若的,镇定的;摆好姿势不动的,静止的;平

 
opportunity [.ɔpə'tju:niti]

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n. 机会,时机

 
uncertainty [ʌn'sə:tnti]

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n. 不确定,不可靠,半信半疑 (学术)不可信度; 偏差

 
rare [rɛə]

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adj. 稀罕的,稀薄的,罕见的,珍贵的
ad

 
recovery [ri'kʌvəri]

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n. 恢复,复原,痊愈

 
decline [di'klain]

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n. 衰微,跌落; 晚年
v. 降低,婉谢

 


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